I am on record, extensively, assuring all of you that Barack Obama will win the presidency this coming Tuesday. Having said that, many of us will remember that I spent most of last January explaining how John McCain could not win the Republican nomination. My record as a prophet is not one of 100 percent accuracy--but I keep slinging.

Polls seem to be tightening--what is really happening?

1. Cold Feet. We have spent approximately one week with Barack Obama as president-elect. That is, we have bought into the idea in our own minds that this international man of mystery is going to be our next chief executive. This week we are experiencing buyer's remorse. A lot of voters are suddenly unsure. No truer emotion in the human condition than cold feet.

"This is what I want. This is what I have to have. I will die if I don't get it." Then, once we own it: "Oh no, what was I thinking. This was a big mistake."

But, in this case, we have not really done it yet. We can still back out. Will we?

2. Media backlash. A lot of stories this past week (accompanied with unimpeachable statistical evidence) acknowledging the unprecedented media bias during this canvass (even the media seem to be feeling a bit sheepish about it). Even without the stats, we know it in our bones when the fix is in.

Moreover, Americans are not big fans of the media. Natural Question: why are these guys willing to lie, obfuscate, and run interference for this candidate? Is it really in our interest to hand this election over to the prObama press corps? Suddenly, we've got a bad feeling about all of this.

3. America loves an underdog. Gotta love that Johnny McCain. He does not know the meaning of quit. Do you believe in miracles?

4. John McCain finally found an issue and a symbol. Joe the Plumber. We are finally on GOP turf. We win elections in this country on three issues: small government, taxes, and cultural populism. "Spreading the wealth around" gave us an opening. The feeding frenzy on Joe was offensive and disturbing. The "redistribution" stuff was more gas on the fire. And now the ever-shifting definition of rich ($250K, $200K, $150K, $120K) is probably innocent enough--but, nevertheless, devastating. This undisciplined message reminds us that whatever number the Democrats have in mind is whimsical and not subject to any accountability. If they take control of the White House and improve their numbers in Congress, the Democrats can literally do anything they want.

5. Sarah Palin. No matter how many talking heads in the media assert that Sarah Palin was a big mistake--she continues to hammer home her points in an appealing way. She weathered her nadir a few weeks ago--when Tina Feylin almost stole her soul. But, since then, she has won a vice presidential debate, gone toe-to-toe with the cast of SNL, taken to the offensive again, and continued to thrill the heartland.

Bottom Line: Johnny McCain is on a roll. Will it be enough to come all the way back? I continue to say no--but nobody knows anything--and nobody more so than I. But this seems to me like too far to come in too short of a time. McCain needs another week or two to pull off this comeback. I suspect this is a last gasp of a dying campaign. But, then again, who knows?

One great thing about this being a close election, however, is that it may give pause to Obama. If he wins a squeaker, perhaps the unexpected close call will remind him that this is a center-right nation. Overreach on the part of a Democratic majority guarantees a devastating defeat at some point in the future.

One Last Thought: if things are getting tight, should we expect one last "November Surprise" directed at McCain-Palin? I suppose tonight would be the absolute last chance for any devastating revelations.